Hi ,
Gold just hit levels that would’ve sounded absurd to many people a decade ago—briefly touching $4,625/oz last week.
The real story today isn’t the price, it’s why gold keeps getting pulled back into relevance, again, across very different market environments.
Government debt has quietly shifted from being cyclical to structural with no credible political or economic plan to reverse course. At the same time, money itself has become more experimental than ever: quantitative easing, balance-sheet expansion, yield-curve management, direct market intervention, selective bailouts.
When systems start relying on experimentation rather than discipline, currency debasement stops being a risk and starts feeling like an outcome.
That’s why I remain bullish on gold long term.
Not as a trade.
Not as a prediction.
But as a structural component of a resilient portfolio—and one I believe deserves a deliberate place in yours.
The Context (What I’ve Seen Firsthand)
Over the last 25 years, gold has quietly compounded through multiple market regimes. Around the year 2000, gold traded near $280/oz. Just days ago, it touched new all-time highs above $4,625/oz. That didn’t happen because of one event or one crisis. It happened through a series of pressures: inflation shocks, repeated monetary expansion, geopolitical tension, and a gradual erosion of trust between major powers.
Equities over that same period delivered extraordinary returns—but not without a psychological toll.
Gold’s path was different.
Less linear. Less exciting day to day. But remarkably persistent.
The Core Idea (Why I Hold It)
Gold isn’t competing with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, or growth stocks.
It plays a different role entirely.
Gold is insurance against assumptions breaking.
It doesn’t rely on earnings growth, productivity gains, population growth, or technological breakthroughs. It responds to forces that tend to surface when financial systems are under strain:
Expanding government debt
Persistent currency debasement
Negative real interest rates
Declining trust in monetary authorities
Between 2020 till date, long-term government bonds has lost significant purchasing power after inflation. For many investors, bonds failed at their primary job—capital preservation.
Gold, meanwhile, has been marching forward.
Gold often looks unnecessary during periods of stable growth. Then suddenly indispensable when stress hits.
Judging gold only during equity bull markets is like judging insurance based on how often your house doesn’t burn down.
The Bond Substitution Question
This is where my view tends to diverge from convention.
Traditionally, government bonds are supposed to provide stability. But when:
Debt levels are extreme
Inflation is tolerated (or encouraged)
Rates are politically constrained
Bonds begin to lose that role.
In environments like this, governments often engage in financial repression—keeping rates below inflation to quietly erode the real value of debt. That may help the issuer, but it hurts the holder.
Gold doesn’t offer yield. But it also doesn’t pretend.
For me, that trade-off matters.
The Geopolitical Layer (The World I See Coming)
We’re entering a more fragmented global order.
The U.S. and China are competing not just economically, but technologically and monetarily. Supply chains are being reshaped. Sanctions are now a routine policy tool. Currency strength is openly discussed as leverage.
When policymakers begin talking about weaker currencies as strategy—not accident—that historically creates a structural tailwind for gold.
Not immediately. Not smoothly. But persistently.
Gold thrives in uncertainty that doesn’t resolve quickly. And right now, resolution feels scarce.
Central Banks Are Telling You Something
One of the most overlooked signals in recent years has been central bank behaviour.
Central banks have been buying gold at or near record levels. Not traders. Not retail investors.
Central banks.
They’re accumulating gold because it is:
No one else’s liability
Independent of any single country’s policy
Resistant to sanctions and counterparty risk
Russia’s frozen foreign reserves were a wake-up call for many countries. Gold held within borders is very different from IOUs held abroad.
When the institutions that issue fiat currencies diversify their reserves into gold, I take that seriously. Not as a signal to speculate—but as a signal to rebalance thoughtfully.
The Debt Trap I Worry About
U.S. debt interest costs exceed defence spending.
That arithmetic doesn’t work indefinitely.
At some point, governments face a choice:
Inflate away the burden
Suppress interest rates
Or restructure expectations
Historically, gold tends to benefit under all three.
Today’s Money Move (How I Think About Allocation)
Here’s how I approach gold within a long-term portfolio:
10–15% allocation feels appropriate to me right now
The objective is resilience—not outperforming equities every year
I’ve personally replaced long term government bonds with gold. That’s not advice—it’s simply what aligns with my view of the current system and lets me sleep at night.
How I Actually Buy
I keep it deliberately boring:
I dollar-cost average during 5–10% pullbacks
I use a mix of largely physical gold (securely stored) and a gold ETFs for liquidity
I accept that I’ll never buy the bottom—and don’t try to
Most of my exposure was built quietly, during periods when gold wasn’t exciting.
That’s usually when it works best.
The Close
Gold has moved a lot in the past 12 months. I’m not suggesting anyone rush in today.
But I do think it deserves your attention.
Long term, I believe gold continues to benefit from the kind of environment we’re entering—not in a straight line, not without volatility, but with persistence.
Carve out 30 minutes this week. Look at your allocation. Decide what role—if any—gold should play. Set a plan to get there gradually, pullback by pullback.
You’ve got this.
— Ben