Hi,
This question hits differently when you’re staring at your own numbers.
Mortgage rates are still hovering around 6.1%–6.2%. Home prices remain stubborn in many growth markets, even as national price growth stalls.
Rents cooled in late 2025, forecasts now point to 2–3% rent growth in 2026 as new construction slows sharply.
It creates urgency — but here’s the twist:
2026 is one of the most balanced housing markets we’ve seen in a decade.
Inventory is up 10–20% year over year. Buyers have more leverage. More time. More room to negotiate.
Which makes calm thinking more valuable than ever.
Because the real decision isn’t rent vs buy.
It’s risk vs resilience.
Risk is how exposed you are when something goes wrong.
Resilience is how well you absorb it.
First, ditch the shortcuts
These ideas push people into rushed decisions:
“Renting is throwing money away”
“Buying always builds wealth”
“If I don’t buy now, I’ll be priced out forever”
“Rates will fall and fix everything”
None of these are planning tools. They’re emotional shortcuts.
The “priced out forever” myth is quietly dying. In several Sun Belt and West Coast markets, prices are already flat or falling.
Nationally, appreciation is barely positive — but bifurcated. Some Northeast and Midwest markets are rising due to scarce inventory; others aren’t.
Housing doesn’t automatically create wealth. It amplifies the financial position you bring into it.
Strong balance sheet? Ownership compounds it.
Fragile finances? Ownership magnifies stress.
What “stretching to buy” really means
Stretching usually shows up as:
Buying near the top of what the bank approves
Draining savings for the down payment
Monthly payments with little margin
Relying on future raises, bonuses, or refinancing
Plenty of people stretch and do fine.
But stretching turns housing into a stress multiplier.
When things go right, progress accelerates.
When something slips, pressure compounds.
Rent isn’t dead money in 2026
This is one of the most renter-friendly periods in years. Vacancy rates remain elevated after the 2024–2025 building boom.
Renting today is effectively a short position on a volatile housing market — while you strengthen your balance sheet.
If renting allows you to:
Invest an extra $800–$1,200 per month
Keep dry powder
Avoid forced decisions
that can materially improve long-term outcomes.
When buying wins — and when renting wins
Buying tends to make sense when:
Housing stays under 30–35% of take-home pay
You retain meaningful cash after closing
Income is stable and predictable
You expect to stay 5–7+ years
Renting often wins when:
Payments would push 40%+
Savings would be drained
Income is variable
Life plans aren’t settled
The real takeaway
The goal isn’t to own a house.
It’s to build a financial system that:
absorb shocks
compounds steadily
let’s you sleep at night
Sometimes ownership helps that.
Sometimes waiting does.
Resilience almost always beats urgency.
So — should you rent on purpose, or stretch to buy?
Rent on purpose if it strengthens your balance sheet, protects your flexibility, and lets you absorb shocks without stress. That isn’t hesitation. That’s discipline.
Stretch to buy only if the risk is chosen, not accidental — and if your finances remain resilient even when nothing improves.
The mistake isn’t renting.
The mistake is buying under pressure.
In 2026, time is finally on the buyer’s side. Use it.
The right move isn’t the one that feels urgent.
It’s the one that leaves your financial system stronger a year from now.
You’ve got this.
— Ben